Revenue & EBITDA Overview
Annual Revenue
₹2,000 Cr
EBITDA
₹490 Cr
31.6% margin
Monthly Rate
₹166 Cr
Volume Apr-2026
10,157 MT
Forecast May-26
10,620 MT
Product I Mix
70%
Selling Price
₹58,500
Per MT
Billet Cost
₹47,800
Per MT
Gross Spread
₹10,700
EBITDA Margin
9.8%
EBITDA at Risk
₹7.6 Cr
Energy Cost/MT
₹3,850
Annual EBITDA Protection Opportunity
₹18 – ₹24 Cr
Raw material timing · Scrap blend · Energy · Dispatch
Monthly Gross Spread Forecast — May to Oct 2026 (₹/MT)
August shows maximum compression risk
| Month | Volume | Revenue | Spread | EBITDA% | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May-2026 | 10,620 | ₹164.8 Cr | ₹10,700 | 9.8% | Med |
| Jun-2026 | 10,980 | ₹170.2 Cr | ₹10,300 | 9.2% | Med |
| Jul-2026 | 9,850 | ₹152.2 Cr | ₹8,800 | 8.1% | Med |
| Aug-2026 | 9,420 | ₹145.8 Cr | ₹7,900 | 7.1% | High |
| Sep-2026 | 10,750 | ₹166.6 Cr | ₹10,800 | 10.2% | Stable |
| Oct-2026 | 11,300 | ₹175.1 Cr | ₹11,700 | 11.1% | Strong |
Sales Forecast Intelligence
3-Year Avg Monthly
9,840 MT
Peak Actual
13,103 MT
Aug-2024
Forecast Peak
11,300 MT
Oct-2026
Product I Growth
+14.2%
YoY Growth
+8.4%
Monsoon Dip
Jul–Aug
Sales Volume Trend — Actual & Forecast (MT)
Actual (orange) + Forecast (blue dashed)
| Month | Total (MT) | Product I | Product V | I% | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May-2026 | 10,620 | 7,280 | 3,340 | 68.5% | High |
| Jun-2026 | 10,980 | 7,520 | 3,460 | 68.4% | High |
| Jul-2026 | 9,850 | 6,640 | 3,210 | 67.4% | Med |
| Aug-2026 | 9,420 | 6,210 | 3,210 | 65.9% | Med |
| Sep-2026 | 10,750 | 7,180 | 3,570 | 66.8% | High |
| Oct-2026 | 11,300 | 7,620 | 3,680 | 67.4% | High |
Forecast Intelligence
Product I consistently strengthening from Jan-2026. Product V declining vs FY2024. Monsoon dip Jul–Aug. October recovery from project restart cycles — build inventory now.
Product & Size Demand Forecast
Highest Demand
12mm
22% of total
2nd Highest
16mm
19% of total
Stockout Risk
8,10,12mm
Excess Stock
28,32mm
Top 2 Sizes
41%
12mm + 16mm
Slow Moving
₹14.8 Cr
Size-wise Demand Mix (%)
May-2026 forecast
| Size | Mix% | Days Cover | Stockout | FG Aging | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8mm | 14% | 8 days | High | Low | P1 Urgent |
| 10mm | 18% | 10 days | High | Low | P1 Urgent |
| 12mm | 22% | 10 days | High | Low | P1 Urgent |
| 16mm | 19% | 21 days | Low | Low | P2 Normal |
| 28mm | 3% | 64 days | Low | High | P4 Hold |
| 32mm | 3% | 68 days | Low | High | P4 Hold |
Production Priority
12mm and 16mm account for 41% of forecast demand — prioritise for next 45 days. 8mm and 10mm at critical stockout risk (8–10 days). Suspend 28mm and 32mm production for 30 days to reduce ₹14.8 Cr slow-moving inventory.
Selling Price vs Billet Cost Forecast
Selling Price
₹58,500
Per MT
Billet Cost
₹47,800
Per MT
Gross Spread
₹10,700
Min Forecast Spread
₹7,900
Aug-2026
Max Forecast Spread
₹11,700
Oct-2026
Risk Month
Aug-2026
Selling Price vs Billet Cost vs Spread (₹/MT)
Green=Selling · Red=Billet · Orange=Spread
August Compression Warning
Aug-2026: selling price ₹57,600 while billet peaks at ₹49,700 — spread compressed to ₹7,900/MT (26% below current). Forward billet purchase now for Jul–Aug protects ₹2.8 Cr EBITDA.
Scrap Price Intelligence
Total Opportunity
₹7.1 Cr
Urgent Buy Opp.
₹3.5 Cr
High Volatility
3 Types
Best Blend
Sponge Iron
₹31,900/MT
Current vs 30-Day Forecast Price (₹/MT)
Blue=Current · Red=Forecast (rising = buy now)
| Scrap | Current | Forecast | Volatility | Rec. | EBITDA Opp. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HMS 1 | ₹37,800 | ₹39,200↑ | High | Buy Now | ₹1.2 Cr |
| Shredded | ₹38,900 | ₹40,300↑ | High | Buy Now | ₹1.5 Cr |
| MS Plate | ₹36,900 | ₹38,100↑ | High | Buy Now | ₹0.8 Cr |
| Sponge Iron | ₹31,900 | ₹32,800↑ | Med | Blend | ₹0.9 Cr |
| HMS 2 | ₹36,400 | ₹37,100↑ | Med | Stagger | ₹0.6 Cr |
| PNS Scrap | ₹35,800 | ₹36,200→ | Low | Hold | ₹0.3 Cr |
Forward Buying
HMS 1, Shredded Scrap, and MS Plate Cutting forward purchase protects ₹3.5 Cr EBITDA over 60 days. Including Sponge Iron blend, total opportunity: ₹7.1 Cr. Buy window: next 10 days.
Margin & EBITDA Simulator
Risk Case
7.1%
EBITDA Margin
Base Case
9.8%
EBITDA Margin
Best Case
12.4%
EBITDA Margin
EBITDA Waterfall — Base to Best Case (%)
Contribution of each improvement lever
Input Lever Sensitivity
Selling Price +2.1%+₹3.4 Cr
Billet Price +3.8%-₹4.1 Cr
Scrap Blend Optimise+₹3.5 Cr
Energy Optimisation+₹3.8 Cr
Key Insight
1% improvement in raw material purchase timing protects ₹8–10 Cr annual EBITDA. Combined optimisation across billet, scrap, and dispatch delivers ₹18–24 Cr annually.
Production & Inventory Planning
Rolling Mill Util.
82%
Billet Inventory
18,400 MT
Finished Goods
9,850 MT
WIP
3,200 MT
Inventory Days
24
Slow-Moving Stock
₹14.8 Cr
Rolling Mill Utilization Trend (%)
Last 6 months
| Size | FG Stock | Demand/Mo | Prod. Req. | Priority | Schedule |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8mm | 420 MT | 1,487 MT | 1,067 MT | P1 | Week 1–2 |
| 10mm | 640 MT | 1,912 MT | 1,272 MT | P1 | Week 1–2 |
| 12mm | 780 MT | 2,336 MT | 1,556 MT | P1 | Week 1–3 |
| 16mm | 1,420 MT | 2,018 MT | 598 MT | P2 | Week 2–4 |
| 28mm | 680 MT | 319 MT | 0 MT | Hold | Suspend 30d |
| 32mm | 720 MT | 319 MT | 0 MT | Hold | Suspend 30d |
Dispatch & Order Fulfilment
Pending Orders
₹86 Cr
Dispatch SLA
88%
Avg Delay
11.4 hrs
Fleet Availability
76%
Bay Congestion
High
Penalty Exposure
₹1.6 Cr
Dispatch SLA Trend — Weekly (%)
Target: 95% — currently declining
| Order ID | Customer | Size | Value | Status | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VSC-0441 | Apex Constructions | 12mm | ₹2.8 Cr | Loading | High |
| VSC-0438 | Greenfield Infra | 10mm | ₹1.9 Cr | Dispatch | Med |
| VSC-0431 | Bharat Traders | 16mm | ₹3.7 Cr | Await FG | Med |
| VSC-0428 | Southern Builders | 8mm | ₹1.5 Cr | Delayed | High |
Energy & Utility Cost Dashboard
Monthly Energy Cost
₹39.1 Cr
Energy Cost / MT
₹3,850
Furnace Share
54%
Rolling Mill Share
31%
Peak Demand Penalty
₹1.2 Cr
Leakage Opportunity
₹3.8 Cr
Monthly
Carbon Intensity
0.42 tCO2
Per MT
DG Usage
8%
Energy Cost / MT Trend (₹) — Last 6 Months
Rising trend — intervention needed
Energy Leakage
₹3.8 Cr/month recoverable: Load shift to off-peak ₹1.4 Cr · DG reduction ₹0.8 Cr · Furnace temperature optimisation ₹1.1 Cr · Power factor correction ₹0.5 Cr.
Predictive EHS Traffic Management
Daily Movements
620
High-Risk Zones
9
Near Misses
18
Forklift-Pedestrian
27
Overspeeding
64
Gate Queue
48 mins
Yard Idle Loss
₹2.4 Cr
Monthly
Bay Congestion
High
Plant Gate Traffic by Hour (Daily Average)
Peak: 4 PM–7 PM — scrap + dispatch overlap
EHS Intelligence
Scrap yard and billet unloading zone show highest congestion between 3 PM–7 PM. Forklift-pedestrian overlap risk increased 22% in Rolling Mill Zone B. Implement truck slot booking to reduce gate queue from 48 to 15 minutes — recovers ₹2.4 Cr/month dispatch idle loss.
| Zone | Peak Hours | Near Misses | Risk Score | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scrap Yard | 15:00–19:00 | 8 | 91 | Stagger arrival slots |
| Billet Bay | 14:00–18:00 | 5 | 84 | Separate lanes |
| Rolling Mill B | 07:00–11:00 | 6 | 79 | Pedestrian corridor |
| Dispatch Gate | 16:00–20:00 | 4 | 72 | Queue management |
Regulatory & Compliance Dashboard
Compliance Score
84 / 100
Open EHS Actions
23
Pollution Alerts
4
Dust Emission Risk
Medium
Waste Recycling
76%
Audit Readiness
81%
Water / MT
1.8 KL
Penalty Exposure
₹2.1 Cr
Compliance Score by Category (out of 100)
Red below 75 = non-compliant risk
| Area | Score | Open CAPAs | Status | Penalty |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pollution Control | 78/100 | 6 | At Risk | ₹0.8 Cr |
| Energy Audit | 88/100 | 2 | Compliant | ₹0.1 Cr |
| EHS Reporting | 82/100 | 4 | Review | ₹0.4 Cr |
| Factory Act | 91/100 | 2 | Compliant | ₹0.1 Cr |
| Labour Safety | 72/100 | 4 | Non-Compliant | ₹0.3 Cr |
CXO Risk Alerts
Critical Alerts
3
High Risk Alerts
5
Total Exposure
₹38.6 Cr
Actionable Today
4
🔴 Billet Price Spike Risk78%
Impact
Margin compressionExposure
₹6.8 CrCEO Decision
Lock 45-day billet supply at ₹47,800/MT for full Product I forecast demand. Engage 2–3 billet suppliers before week end.
🔴 August Margin Compression91%
EBITDA drops to
7.1%Exposure
₹8.4 CrCEO Decision
Pre-buy billet for Jul–Aug at current prices. Maximise scrap blend to 22% in August. Defer discretionary capex ₹3 Cr.
🟡 Product V Demand Softness68%
Impact
Revenue mix shiftExposure
₹4.2 CrCEO Decision
Shift capacity from Product V to Product I (8–12mm). Engage key Product V customers for pricing negotiation.
🟡 Dispatch Congestion Risk72%
Exposure
₹1.6 CrSLA Risk
88% — decliningCEO Decision
Pre-stage fleet 4 hours before loading. Add evening shift loading crew. Implement truck slot booking system.
PerformIQ Strategic Intelligence
PerformIQ helps V Steel Company protect EBITDA by predicting demand, raw material prices, scrap purchase timing, production priorities, dispatch risk, energy leakage, EHS exposure, and regulatory risk before margin loss occurs. Total actionable EBITDA protection: ₹18–24 Cr annually.