Revenue & EBITDA Overview
Annual Revenue
₹2,000 Cr
FY 2025–26
Monthly Run Rate
₹166 Cr
On track
Current Month Volume
10,157 MT
Apr-2026
Forecast Next Month
10,620 MT
May-2026
Product I Mix
70%
Product V Mix
30%
Avg Selling Price
₹58,500
Per MT
Billet Buying Price
₹47,800
Per MT
Gross Spread
₹10,700
Per MT
EBITDA Margin
9.8%
EBITDA at Risk
₹7.6 Cr
This month
RM Price Risk
High
Billet + Scrap elevated
Inventory Days
24
Days cover
FG Aging Risk
Medium
28mm, 32mm aging
Energy Cost / MT
₹3,850
Monthly ₹39.1 Cr
EHS Traffic Risk
72 / 100
EBITDA Protection Opportunity
Estimated Annual EBITDA Protection Opportunity
₹18 – ₹24 Cr
Through predictive raw material buying, dispatch optimisation, energy leakage reduction, and scrap blend intelligence
Month-wise EBITDA Risk Summary
| Month | Volume (MT) | Revenue (₹ Cr) | Billet Cost | Gross Spread | EBITDA% | Risk Level |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May-2026 | 10,620 | ₹164.8 | ₹47,800 | ₹10,700 | 9.8% | Medium |
| Jun-2026 | 10,980 | ₹170.2 | ₹48,900 | ₹10,300 | 9.2% | Medium |
| Jul-2026 | 9,850 | ₹152.2 | ₹49,300 | ₹8,800 | 8.1% | Medium |
| Aug-2026 | 9,420 | ₹145.8 | ₹49,700 | ₹7,900 | 7.1% | High Risk |
| Sep-2026 | 10,750 | ₹166.6 | ₹48,600 | ₹10,800 | 10.2% | Stable |
| Oct-2026 | 11,300 | ₹175.1 | ₹49,100 | ₹11,700 | 11.1% | Strong |
Sales Forecast Intelligence
3-Year Avg Monthly
9,840 MT
Peak Month (Actual)
13,103 MT
Aug-2024
Lowest Month
5,839 MT
Nov-2023
Forecast Peak
11,300 MT
Oct-2026
YoY Growth
+8.4%
FY26 vs FY25
Product I Growth
+14.2%
Strengthening
Sales Volume Trend — Actual & Forecast (MT)
Apr-2023 to Oct-2026 · Forecast from May-2026 shown with dashed line
Product I vs Product V — Monthly Volume
Last 12 months + 6-month forecast
Seasonal Demand Pattern
Average MT by month — 3-year pattern
6-Month Sales Forecast
| Month | Total Volume (MT) | Product I | Product V | Product I % | vs Prior Year | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May-2026 | 10,620 | 7,280 | 3,340 | 68.5% | +22% | High |
| Jun-2026 | 10,980 | 7,520 | 3,460 | 68.4% | +17% | High |
| Jul-2026 | 9,850 | 6,640 | 3,210 | 67.4% | -6% | Medium |
| Aug-2026 | 9,420 | 6,210 | 3,210 | 65.9% | -28% | Medium |
| Sep-2026 | 10,750 | 7,180 | 3,570 | 66.8% | +10% | High |
| Oct-2026 | 11,300 | 7,620 | 3,680 | 67.4% | +27% | High |
Product I Strengthening
Product I demand has consistently strengthened from Jan-2026 onwards, reaching 70%+ of total mix. Product V contribution has declined compared to FY2024 peak levels. Monsoon months (Jul–Aug) show demand softness. October recovery expected from project restart cycles.
Product & Size Demand Forecast
Highest Demand Size
12mm
22% of total
2nd Highest
16mm
19% of total
Stockout Risk Sizes
8, 10, 12mm
Urgent production
Excess Stock Risk
28, 32mm
Aging inventory
Top 2 Sizes Share
41%
12mm + 16mm
Slow Moving Stock
₹14.8 Cr
Size-wise Demand Mix (%)
May-2026 forecast
Size-wise Volume Forecast (MT)
May–Oct 2026 · Top 6 sizes
Size-wise Risk & Recommendation
| Size | Demand Mix | Monthly Vol (MT) | Current Stock | Days Cover | Stockout Risk | FG Aging Risk | Production Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8mm | 14% | 1,487 | 420 MT | 8 days | High | Low | P1 — Urgent |
| 10mm | 18% | 1,912 | 640 MT | 10 days | High | Low | P1 — Urgent |
| 12mm | 22% | 2,336 | 780 MT | 10 days | High | Low | P1 — Urgent |
| 16mm | 19% | 2,018 | 1,420 MT | 21 days | Low | Low | P2 — Normal |
| 20mm | 9% | 956 | 820 MT | 26 days | Low | Low | P3 — Adequate |
| 24mm | 6% | 637 | 580 MT | 27 days | Low | Medium | P3 — Adequate |
| 25mm | 5% | 531 | 490 MT | 28 days | Low | Medium | P3 — Adequate |
| 28mm | 3% | 319 | 680 MT | 64 days | Low | High | P4 — Hold |
| 32mm | 3% | 319 | 720 MT | 68 days | Low | High | P4 — Hold |
| 36mm | 1% | 106 | 190 MT | 54 days | Low | Medium | P3 — Monitor |
Production Priority Alert
12mm and 16mm account for 41% of forecast demand. Production planning must prioritise these sizes for the next 45 days. 8mm and 10mm are at critical stockout risk with only 8–10 days cover. 28mm and 32mm are over-stocked — suspend production for 30 days.
Selling Price vs Billet Cost Forecast
Current Selling Price
₹58,500
Per MT
Current Billet Cost
₹47,800
Per MT
Current Gross Spread
₹10,700
Per MT
Min Forecast Spread
₹7,900
Aug-2026
Max Forecast Spread
₹11,700
Oct-2026
Margin Compression Risk
Aug-2026
Selling Price vs Billet Cost vs Gross Spread (₹/MT)
6-month forecast May–Oct 2026
Price Forecast Table
| Month | Selling Price (₹/MT) | Billet Cost (₹/MT) | Gross Spread (₹/MT) | Spread Change | Margin Risk | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May-2026 | ₹58,500 | ₹47,800 | ₹10,700 | Baseline | Medium | Lock billet forward |
| Jun-2026 | ₹59,200 | ₹48,900 | ₹10,300 | -3.7% | Medium | Monitor billet trend |
| Jul-2026 | ₹58,100 | ₹49,300 | ₹8,800 | -17.8% | High | Prioritise scrap blend |
| Aug-2026 | ₹57,600 | ₹49,700 | ₹7,900 | -26.2% | Critical | Halt discretionary spend |
| Sep-2026 | ₹59,400 | ₹48,600 | ₹10,800 | +36.7% | Stable | Normal operations |
| Oct-2026 | ₹60,800 | ₹49,100 | ₹11,700 | +8.3% | Strong | Push volumes |
August Margin Compression Warning
August-2026 shows highest margin compression risk — selling price drops to ₹57,600/MT while billet cost peaks at ₹49,700/MT, compressing gross spread to ₹7,900/MT (26% below current). Forward billet purchase now for July–August requirement can protect ₹2.8 Cr EBITDA.
Scrap Price Intelligence
Total EBITDA Opportunity
₹7.1 Cr
Forward buying + blend
Urgent Buy Opportunity
₹3.5 Cr
HMS1, Shredded, MS Plate
High Volatility Scraps
3 types
Best Blend Option
Sponge Iron Sub.
₹31,900/MT
Scrap Type — Current vs Forecast Price (₹/MT)
30-day price forecast
EBITDA Saving Opportunity by Scrap Type (₹ Cr)
Forward buying benefit
Scrap Intelligence Table
| Scrap Type | Current ₹/MT | 30-Day Forecast | Volatility | Availability | Recommendation | EBITDA Opportunity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HMS 1 | ₹37,800 | ₹39,200 | High | Medium | Buy Now | ₹1.2 Cr |
| HMS 2 | ₹36,400 | ₹37,100 | Medium | High | Stagger Buy | ₹0.6 Cr |
| Shredded Scrap | ₹38,900 | ₹40,300 | High | Low | Buy Now | ₹1.5 Cr |
| PNS Scrap | ₹35,800 | ₹36,200 | Low | Medium | Hold | ₹0.3 Cr |
| Turning Scrap | ₹32,500 | ₹33,400 | Medium | High | Stagger Buy | ₹0.4 Cr |
| Cast Iron Scrap | ₹34,700 | ₹35,600 | Medium | Medium | Monitor | ₹0.2 Cr |
| MS Plate Cutting | ₹36,900 | ₹38,100 | High | Medium | Buy Now | ₹0.8 Cr |
| Rebar Scrap | ₹35,200 | ₹36,000 | Medium | High | Stagger Buy | ₹0.5 Cr |
| Rail Scrap | ₹39,800 | ₹40,600 | Low | Low | Strategic Buy | ₹0.7 Cr |
| Sponge Iron Sub. | ₹31,900 | ₹32,800 | Medium | High | Blend Option | ₹0.9 Cr |
Forward Buying Intelligence
Forward buying HMS 1, Shredded Scrap, and MS Plate Cutting can protect ₹3.5 Cr EBITDA over the next 60 days. Including Sponge Iron Substitute blend optimisation, total opportunity is ₹7.1 Cr. Purchase window: next 10 days before price escalation.
Margin & EBITDA Simulator
Risk Case
7.1%
EBITDA Margin
Base Case
9.8%
EBITDA Margin
Best Case
12.4%
EBITDA Margin
Input Levers
Selling Price Change+2.1%
Billet Price Change+3.8%
Scrap Blend Optimisation18%
Energy Cost Change+1.4%
Sales Volume Change+4.6%
Dispatch Delay %12%
EBITDA Impact Output
Revenue Impact
+₹3.4 Cr
Gross Margin Impact
-₹4.1 Cr
EBITDA Impact
-₹2.8 Cr
Working Capital
+₹8.4 Cr
Scrap Saving
+₹3.5 Cr
Energy Leakage
₹3.8 Cr
Recommended Action
Lock 45-day billet supply at current price. Increase scrap blend ratio by 4%. Reduce dispatch delay to below 6 hours through fleet pre-staging. Combined impact: +₹2.1 Cr EBITDA this quarter.
EBITDA Scenario Waterfall
Base case impact of each lever
Key Insight
1% improvement in raw material purchase timing can protect approximately ₹8–10 Cr annual EBITDA. Combined optimisation across billet forward buying, scrap blend, and dispatch efficiency can deliver ₹18–24 Cr annual EBITDA protection.
Production & Inventory Planning
Rolling Mill Utilization
82%
Billet Inventory
18,400 MT
~43 days cover
Finished Goods Inv.
9,850 MT
WIP
3,200 MT
Inventory Days
24
Slow-Moving Stock
₹14.8 Cr
28mm, 32mm heavy
Stockout Risk
8, 10, 12mm
Excess Stock Risk
28, 32mm
Rolling Mill Utilization — 6 Month Trend
% utilization by month
Inventory Composition (MT)
Billet · WIP · Finished Goods
Production Schedule Recommendation
| Size | Current FG Stock | Monthly Demand | Production Required | Priority | Schedule Week | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8mm | 420 MT | 1,487 MT | 1,067 MT | P1 | Week 1–2 | Immediate — start today |
| 10mm | 640 MT | 1,912 MT | 1,272 MT | P1 | Week 1–2 | Immediate — start today |
| 12mm | 780 MT | 2,336 MT | 1,556 MT | P1 | Week 1–3 | High priority |
| 16mm | 1,420 MT | 2,018 MT | 598 MT | P2 | Week 2–4 | Normal schedule |
| 28mm | 680 MT | 319 MT | 0 MT | Hold | — | Suspend 30 days |
| 32mm | 720 MT | 319 MT | 0 MT | Hold | — | Suspend 30 days |
Dispatch & Order Fulfilment
Pending Orders
₹86 Cr
Dispatch SLA
88%
Avg Dispatch Delay
11.4 hrs
Fleet Availability
76%
Loading Bay Congestion
High
Penalty Exposure
₹1.6 Cr
Dispatch SLA Trend — Weekly
% on-time dispatch
Region-wise Pending Orders (₹ Cr)
Current dispatch backlog
Order Fulfilment Status
| Order ID | Customer | Size | Qty (MT) | Value (₹ Cr) | Due Date | Status | Delay Risk | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VSC-2026-0441 | Apex Constructions | 12mm | 480 MT | ₹2.8 Cr | 18 May | Loading | High | P1 |
| VSC-2026-0438 | Greenfield Infra | 10mm | 320 MT | ₹1.9 Cr | 19 May | In Dispatch | Medium | P2 |
| VSC-2026-0431 | Bharat Steel Traders | 16mm | 640 MT | ₹3.7 Cr | 20 May | Awaiting FG | Medium | P2 |
| VSC-2026-0428 | Southern Builders | 8mm | 260 MT | ₹1.5 Cr | 21 May | Delayed | High | P1 |
| VSC-2026-0419 | Metro Infrastructure | 32mm | 180 MT | ₹1.1 Cr | 23 May | Ready | Low | P3 |
Energy & Utility Cost Dashboard
Monthly Energy Cost
₹39.1 Cr
Energy Cost / MT
₹3,850
Furnace Energy Share
54%
Rolling Mill Energy
31%
Peak Demand Penalty
₹1.2 Cr
This month
Energy Leakage Opp.
₹3.8 Cr
Monthly recoverable
Carbon Intensity
0.42 tCO2
Per MT produced
DG Usage Share
8%
High cost source
Energy Cost per MT — Monthly Trend (₹)
Rolling 6 months
Energy Cost by Source (%)
Monthly breakdown
Energy Leakage Intelligence
₹3.8 Cr/month energy leakage is recoverable through: (1) Shifting 18% load from peak to off-peak tariff windows — ₹1.4 Cr saving; (2) DG replacement with grid power during planned shutdowns — ₹0.8 Cr; (3) Furnace temperature optimisation — ₹1.1 Cr; (4) Rolling mill power factor correction — ₹0.5 Cr.
| Energy Source | Monthly Consumption | Unit Cost | Monthly Cost | Share | Leakage | Optimisation Potential |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Furnace (Grid) | 8.4 M Units | ₹7.2/kWh | ₹21.1 Cr | 54% | ₹1.6 Cr | Temp optimisation + scheduling |
| Rolling Mill (Grid) | 4.8 M Units | ₹7.2/kWh | ₹12.1 Cr | 31% | ₹0.9 Cr | Power factor correction |
| DG Sets | 0.8 M Units | ₹22/kWh | ₹3.8 Cr | 8% | ₹0.8 Cr | Reduce DG dependency |
| Compressed Air | — | — | ₹1.4 Cr | 4% | ₹0.3 Cr | Leak detection programme |
| Utilities (Water/Other) | — | — | ₹0.7 Cr | 3% | ₹0.2 Cr | Monitoring only |
Predictive EHS Traffic Management
Daily Vehicle Movements
620
High-Risk Zones
9
Loading Bay Congestion
High
Near Misses (Month)
18
Forklift-Pedestrian Risk
27
Events this month
Overspeeding Events
64
Gate Queue Time
48 mins
Dispatch Yard Idle Loss
₹2.4 Cr
Per month
Traffic Congestion by Hour (Daily Average)
Vehicle count at plant gate
EHS Risk Events — Monthly Trend
Near misses, overspeeding, forklift events
Scrap Yard & Billet Zone — Critical Hours
Scrap yard and billet unloading zone show highest congestion between 3 PM and 7 PM. Finished goods dispatch trucks cause gate queue delays during evening shift. Forklift-pedestrian overlap risk has increased 22% in Rolling Mill Zone B this month. Recommended: stagger truck arrival slots and create dedicated pedestrian corridors in Zone B.
Risk Zone Intelligence
| Zone | Zone Type | Daily Movements | Peak Hours | Near Misses | Risk Score | Action Required |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scrap Yard | Unloading | 142 | 15:00–19:00 | 8 | 91 | Stagger arrival slots |
| Billet Bay | Unloading | 88 | 14:00–18:00 | 5 | 84 | Separate lanes needed |
| Rolling Mill Zone B | Internal | 94 | 07:00–11:00 | 6 | 79 | Pedestrian corridor mandatory |
| Dispatch Gate | Outbound | 186 | 16:00–20:00 | 4 | 72 | Queue management system |
| Finished Goods Yard | Loading | 110 | 08:00–12:00 | 3 | 68 | Monitor forklift paths |
Regulatory & Compliance Dashboard
Overall Compliance Score
84 / 100
Open EHS Actions
23
Pollution Alerts
4
Dust Emission Risk
Medium
Water Usage / MT
1.8 KL
Waste Recycling Rate
76%
Safety Audit Readiness
81%
Penalty Exposure
₹2.1 Cr
Compliance Score by Category
Current status — 100 = fully compliant
Open Compliance Actions by Priority
23 total open actions
| Compliance Area | Score | Open Actions | Status | Due Date | Penalty Risk |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pollution Control Board | 78/100 | 6 | At Risk | 30 May | ₹0.8 Cr |
| Energy Audit Compliance | 88/100 | 2 | Compliant | 15 Jun | ₹0.1 Cr |
| EHS Statutory Reporting | 82/100 | 4 | Review | 31 May | ₹0.4 Cr |
| Factory Act Compliance | 91/100 | 2 | Compliant | 30 Jun | ₹0.1 Cr |
| Waste Management | 76/100 | 5 | At Risk | 20 May | ₹0.4 Cr |
| Labour & Safety | 72/100 | 4 | Non-Compliant | 15 May | ₹0.3 Cr |
CXO Risk Alerts — Executive Decision Intelligence
Critical Alerts
3
High Risk Alerts
5
Total Exposure
₹38.6 Cr
Actionable Today
4
🔴 CRITICAL — Billet Price Spike Risk
78% Probability
Recommended Decision
Lock 45-day billet supply at current ₹47,800/MT for full Product I forecast demand. Protects ₹5.2 Cr EBITDA. Engage 2–3 billet suppliers for competitive pricing before week end.
🔴 CRITICAL — August Margin Compression
91% Probability
Recommended Decision
Pre-buy billet for July–August at current prices. Maximise scrap blend ratio to 22% in August. Defer discretionary capex ₹3 Cr. Protect working capital through faster collections in June.
🟡 HIGH — Product V Demand Softness
68% Probability
Recommended Decision
Shift production capacity from Product V to Product I (8–12mm). Engage key Product V customers for price negotiation to defend volumes. Review Product V pricing vs market benchmark.
🟡 HIGH — Dispatch Congestion & Penalty Risk
72% Probability
Recommended Decision
Pre-stage fleet 4 hours before loading. Add one loading bay crew for evening shift. Implement truck slot booking system to reduce gate queue from 48 mins to under 15 mins.
🟡 Energy Cost Escalation
Action
Shift furnace operations to off-peak tariff window. Target ₹1.4 Cr immediate saving.
🔴 Scrap Availability Risk
Action
Buy HMS 1, Shredded Scrap, MS Plate Cutting in next 10 days before price escalation.
PerformIQ Strategic Intelligence
PerformIQ helps V Steel Company protect EBITDA by predicting demand, raw material prices, scrap purchase timing, production priorities, dispatch risk, energy leakage, EHS exposure, and regulatory risk before margin loss occurs. Total actionable EBITDA protection this quarter: ₹18–24 Cr annually.